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Paper
Paper Friday
21Nov
Expecting the unexpected
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 13:29 Professor Warwick McKibbin , Adele Morris , Peter J. Wilcoxen
Summary
To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change, and non-climate policies like taxes. The results are only reliable to the extent that the future turns out to be reasonably close to the assumptions that went into the model.
In this Working Paper the authors examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: a globally-harmonised carbon tax; a global cap and trade system; and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid.
Friday
21Nov
Zealous democrats: Islamism and democracy in Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 13:24 Anthony Bubalo , Greg Fealy , Whit Mason
Summary
The question is often asked 'What will Islamists do to democracy?' But it seems equally valid to ask 'What might democracy do to Islamists?' In this new Lowy Institute Paper Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason examine how three different Islamist movements, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Prosperous Justice Party in Indonesia and the Justice and Development Party have sought to adapt to democratic politics and how in turn electoral or democratic participation has shaped the evolution of their ideology, policies and activism.
An executive summary of the Paper is available here. - PDF (147KB)
To order a hard copy of this publication click here.
Friday
21Nov
US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Security Relations after the Elections
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 13:20  | ||||
| SWP Comments 2008/C 23, October 2008, 8 pages | ||||
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| by Peter Rudolf | ||||
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The election campaign rhetoric on foreign policy issues is no direct indicator of the strategic priorities a new US President will set later - nor is it indicative of the actual policies which will be adopted. It does, however, reflect the ideological framework in which he and his circles of advisors operate. Leaving aside the numerous tactical controversies, the current foreign policy debate in the US displays a rather broad consensus that the country should continue to play a leadership role in international relations. Neither too much concern about a re-ideologisation of foreign policy under John McCain nor an all too hopeful anticipation of a multilateral foreign policy under Barack Obama is appropriate. Considerable continuity in US foreign policy rather than a fundamental shift is the more likely outcome of the upcoming change in the White House. | ||||
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Friday
21Nov
Saving the Two-State Solution - A Transatlantic Agenda for the Middle East
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 13:19 | ||||
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| SWP Comments 2008/C 24, October 2008, 4 pages | ||||
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| by Muriel Asseburg | Patrick Müller | ||||
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It is encouraging that - after some seven years of violence and unilateral steps - parties to the Middle East conflict have started to talk to each other again. Results of these talks, however, have so far been sobering, and prospects for conflict settlement in the Middle East are bleak. It is rather unlikely that the so-called Annapolis process will yield an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, or even a substantial framework agreement, as envisioned before the end of 2008 - not only because the gaps between the parties remain too wide with regards to the core issues (Jerusalem, refugees, settlements), but also because questions of leadership will be dominating the domestic Israeli, Palestinian and US agendas in the weeks and months to come. Because of the urgency imposed by the rapidly diminishing feasibility of a two-state settlement as well as the imminence of a renewed escalation of violence, the peace process - with a focus on the Israeli-Palestinian track - should be one of the main priorities on the transatlantic agenda. | ||||
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Friday
21Nov
The EU Strategy for Central Asia: year one
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 13:17
In 2007, the Council of the European Union adopted “The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership”. This Strategy signalled the EU’s ambition to initiate a fundamental shift in its relations with Central Asia by linking general political goals to a concrete working prospectus in the region for the first time. The Strategy sets a high bar for achievement, identifying a broad range of priorities for the future relationship between the EU and states in Central Asia.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana and Uzbek Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov. (D.Faget/AFP/Getty Images)
One year on from the adoption of the Strategy, the EU has made important progress in strengthening political contacts with Central Asia, but the Strategy has yet to deliver on its promise to foster a broad range of engagements. Moreover, considerable questions remain about the political direction of the EU’s approach to Central Asia.
With the war in Georgia in the summer of 2008 promoting a rethink of the Union’s approach to Russia, Ukraine and the South Caucasus, there is also a strong case for revisiting the EU Strategy for Central Asia and considering ways of making Europe’s contacts more effective with the key countries of the region.
Download the full version of this publication, available inEnglish (154 kB)
Friday
21Nov
SALW Control Training Manual for West Africa
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 13:02  | ||||
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in Paper
Paper Friday
21Nov
From Hegemony to New Geopolitical Competition - Assessing Russia s Strategic Footprint in Central Asia
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 12:55 Friday
21Nov
EU ministers reject ban on free downloading
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 10:28 Published: Friday 21 November 2008
EU culture ministers yesterday (20 November) rejected French proposals to curb online piracy through compulsory measures against free downloading, instead agreeing to promote legal offers of music or films on the Internet.
Background:
Music sector lobbies and the wider online content production industry have triggered the introduction of a range of initiatives to reduce internet piracy in Europe, such as downloading or exchanging songs, films and software without respecting copyright rules.
The toughest stance was adopted by the French government, which is planning to set up a new authority "with powers to suspend or cut access to the Web for those who illegally file-share". The provision is expected to become law in France by next year.
Britain opted instead for a voluntary agreement between service providers, copyright holders and consumers. No authority is planned but similar dissuasive measures for serial illegal downloaders are in store (EurActiv 25/07/08).
At EU level, the Commission adopted a policy paper on 'Creative content online' at the beginning of 2008, citing the French model as an example for the enforcement of bans on illegal downloading, while stressing the importance of "voluntary" (rather than compulsory) measures (EurActiv 10/12/07).
News: The EU Culture Council pushed yesterday (20 November) for "a fair balance between the various fundamental rights" while fighting online piracy, first listing "the right to personal data protection," then "the freedom of information" and only lastly "the protection of intellectual property".
The Council conclusions
also stressed the importance of "consumers' expectations in terms of access […] and diversity of the content offered online". No mention was made of a gradual response to serial downloaders of illegal cultural material, as foreseen by the French authorities.
The gradual response, which would turn Internet service providers into a sort of police of the net, was ruled out in the legislative process to review EU rules governing electronic communications too. The European Commission never proposed such an instrument, while the European Parliament blocked several amendments aimed at introducing these measures (EurActiv 25/09/08). The Council has already clearly opposed the idea, and this stance is expected to be confirmed in the telecoms ministers meeting on 27 November.
Culture ministers have always been the most keen to fight piracy, therefore yesterday's mild conclusions represent a victory for consumers' associations and supporters of freedom of information.
Preventing piracy remains a key goal nonetheless. But it must be achieved not via enforcement measures, but through the promotion of legal offers as well as efficient technical means, said ministers.
Regarding legal implications, ministers did not fully back the French EU Presidency's proposal to cancel or reduce VAT for music or movies sold online. Nevertheless, they agreed to "review the periods within which films may be made available in order to encourage the diversity and attractiveness of legal offer of films online".
As for the technical aspects, ministers said they would "encourage efforts to promote the interoperability and ensure the transparency of technical measures to protect and manage rights, for example by means of a system of identification/labelling".
A good example of this is currently being applied by YouTube, the biggest video-sharing website in the world. Thanks to 'Video ID ' (technology developed by Google, the owner of YouTube), it is possible to track videos and movies that have been illegally downloaded or watched.
Links
European Union
- EU Culture Council: Conclusions on online legal offers and prevention of piracy (20 November 2008)
- European Commission: Communication on content online - press release (3 January 2008) [FR] [DE]
- Google/You Tube: FAQ on Video ID
Friday
21Nov
Cyber Security Social Contract
Friday, November 21, 2008 at 10:17 ISAlliance President Larry Clinton and Board Members Mike Hickey, Vice President, Government Affairs and National Security Policy at Verizon; Tim McKnight, Vice President, Chief Information Officer at Northrop Grumman; Joe Buonomo, President of Direct Computer Resources; Dr. Sagar Vidyasagar, Executive Vice President, Advanced Technology at Tata Consulting Services and Marc-Anthony Signorino, Director of Technology Policy at the National Association of Manufacturers (pictured right to left) released a report advising the Obama administration and 111th congress on a twenty-first century model for protecting and defending critical technology systems and information. The social contract ISA is proposing is based on the agreement between government and the utilities in the early 20th century which had the goal of providing universal phone, power and light service to Americans. That model worked. In the early 1900s the government realized that there would be enormous public benefits to universal utility service ranging from economic development to enhanced public safety. Policy makers understood that much of the needed infrastructure development would be undertaken thanks to the market incentives inherent in providing these services. However, government also realized that these natural market incentives would not extend to the entirety of the population. Moreover, policy makers realized that it was completely impractical for the government to either fund the infrastructure enhancements needed for universal service themselves or simply mandate that it be done. In an enlightened and pragmatic move, government struck a deal with the utilities. The utilities guaranteed to make the infrastructure upgrades necessary to provide universal service. In return government essentially guaranteed a return on the required private investment economically sufficient to make the investments good business decisions. The utilities maintained the investments over time because they were also provided exclusive franchises for the service area. In this instance government harnessed the power of private investment to achieve vital social goals, which had the added benefit of stimulating greater economic growth. Meanwhile consumers were protected by the requirement to provide service at government regulated rates. A similar model can be developed for cyber security. The necessary infrastructure improvements, technical and otherwise, can be addressed through incentives for private investment while the cyber related consumer protection items (SPAM/personal identity) are addressed by regulation. While not identical, the parallels with respect to cyber security are striking. As with public utility service, cyber security cannot be provided directly by the government. As with utility service, many companies do an excellent job with information security as required by their business plans. As with public utility service, the inherent market incentives are insufficient to provide the breadth of security required by the public’s compelling national economic and security interests. Since a voluntary system will not provide adequate market incentives to accommodate the public interest, and due to the global nature of the Internet, a federally mandated system will not work either. A social contract wherein government provides incentives for the private sector to make cyber security investments that are not justified by current business plans is a pragmatic alternative. This ISAlliance report outlines what the Internet Security Alliance Board of Directors believes are the most serious problems facing the nation with respect to cyber security in several critical sectors. It identifies what the government can best do, both long and short term to address these needs and specifies a series of steps the new Administration and Congress can take toward establishing a coherent, pragmatic, effective and sustainable system of cyber security.
Download a copy of The Cyber Security Social Contract - Click Here |
Thursday
20Nov
ODNI Releases Global Trends Projections
Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 21:36 A full copy of the report is available online at: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_
By 2025, the accelerating pace of globalization and the emergence of new powers will produce a world order vastly different from the system in place for most of the post-World War II era, according to a projection by the federal government's top intelligence analysts.
The projection, prepared by the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was made public by the ODNI today.
The ODNI report, “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” projects a still-preeminent U.S. joined by fast developing powers, notably India and China, atop a multipolar international system. The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, the report says. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, “Global Trends 2025” concludes.
The report extrapolates from current and projected trends. It is not a prediction, and the authors stress that “bad outcomes are not inevitable.”
“International leadership and cooperation will be necessary to solve the global challenges and to understand the complexities surrounding them,” the report concludes.
“By laying out some of the alternative possibilities we hope to help policymakers steer us toward more positive solutions.”
Other projections in “Global Trends 2025”: include:
• Russia's emergence as a world power is clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector and the persistence of crime and government corruption.
• Muslim states outside the Arab core – Turkey, Indonesia, even a post-clerical Iran – could take on expanded roles in the new international order.
• A government in Eastern or Central Europe could be effectively taken over and run by organized crime. In parts of Africa and South Asia, some states might wither away as governments fail to provide security and other basic needs.
• A worldwide shift to a new technology that replaces oil will be under way or accomplished by 2025.
• Multiple financial centers will serve as 'shock absorbers' in the world financial system. The U.S. dollar's role will shrink to 'first among equals' in a basket of key world currencies.
• The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes.
• The impact of climate change will be uneven, with some Northern economies, notably Russia and Canada, profiting from longer growing seasons and improved access to resource reserves.
The Global Trends series examines geopolitical trends and analyzes their likely outcomes, in an attempt to prompt public discussion of possible responses. The projections have covered five-year intervals, beginning with Global Trends 2010 issued in November 1997.
A full copy of the report is available online at: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_
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Report, Intelligence, Analysis 