Prepare for a nuclear Iran

From: http://www.arabwashingtonian.org/issue1/opinion.php#2

Dogged by the threat of an Iran with nuclear weapons, some members of the international community, lead by the United States, are calling for the referral of Iran’s nuclear program to the United Nations Security Council. More than once the United States has used threatening rhetoric in its criticism of the Iranian government if it does not halt its nuclear program. In turn, Iran is responding with equally harsh rhetoric. Iran says it is not interested in manufacturing nuclear weapons. But surrounded by US forces, Iran is likely to build nuclear weapons for its protection. Look at it from Iran’s perspective for a moment. The US supported the brutal Shah, encouraged Saddam Hussein to attack Iran in the 1980s and currently occupies Iraq and Afghanistan – both of which border Iran. In light of the US threat, it is only natural for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Once this happens, it will change regional and global politics for decades ahead. This observation is obvious. What is not is whether this is necessarily a bad thing from the perspective of world peace and balance of power. Numerous arguments are presented in the Western media against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons: the apparent instability of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the fear of Iran launching nuclear weapons at Israel, the possibility of Iran selling nuclear weapons to terrorists, and the possibility of nuclear weapons proliferating in Arab countries. All are frightening scenarios, but they are only scenarios. Another scenario is should Iran acquire nuclear weapons, a balance of power may emerge in the region and a détente of sorts materialize. It would be difficult for the US, Arab countries, and perhaps most of all, Israel, to come to terms with such a drastic shift in regional power. Undoubtedly, any potential invasion of another Arab country by the US would either be planned much more carefully or would not be carried out at all. But keep in mind the governments of Arab countries have long used the excuse of a menacing Israel to legitimize their authoritarian regimes to their people. What if the threat of Israel attacking other countries is curtailed for fear of strong Iranian retaliation? Arab governments would be forced to develop less plausible justifications for their non-democratic stance towards their citizens. This could actually work as a catalyst to open the door for democratic change within Arab countries. In the short-term, a nuclear Iran might embolden anachronistic Islamists to fight for political power in Arab countries and possibly gain ground. But how would this play out? Rather than repeat slogans such as “Islam is the solution” as a political platform (as is currently the case in many countries), Islamist leaders would be forced to justify and support their supposed positions. At the end of the day, there are no easy or clear answers. An energized Islamist movement because of Iranian nuclear power might cause the US to truly push for democratization in Arab countries by reaching out to civil society organizations that promote universal human rights values. While the current US Middle East Partnership Initiative aims to do this, critics say some Arab organizations are not engaged in the process because of their critical stance toward US regional policy. Foremost among these US policies is its nearly limitless financial and moral support of Israel. An Iran with nuclear weapons could have a dramatic impact on this regional dynamic. With Hamas a solid winner in the recent democratic Palestinian parliamentary elections, Israel’s stance toward its adversary has become more intransigent. Currently, Israel believes that it does not have to meet with Hamas; but the threat of a Palestine backed by a nuclear power might change their position. Rather than Israel dictating terms to a weaker Palestinian side, perhaps more balanced agreements could be reached in the future. Another possibility to emerge is that Israel and Iran could negotiate in the future for the elimination of all weapons of mass destruction from the region. While many defense experts believe Israel has a nuclear weapons arsenal, it has refused to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Without a threat of a counterbalance to their regional power, there is no reason for Israel to do so. Parallels can be drawn to this scenario and to that of India and Pakistan. A nuclear arms race has been underway between these foes for decades since India detonated its first fission bomb, coined the Smiling Buddha, in 1974. Today, while the threat of nuclear war still exists between Pakistan and India, both sides have shown a willingness to work together for peace. In this situation, reality is what will prevail. Despite threats from the United States, or rather, because of threats from the United States, an Iran with nuclear weapons is sure to become a reality. How the United States, Israel, Arab countries, and other regional players adapt to this will shape the future.