OSINFO - Open Sources Information

The Karachi police investigating the unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Mrs.Benazir Bhutto at Karachi on October 18,2007, shortly after she returned from eight years of political exile, seem to have ruled out the use of a car bomb by the unidentified perpetrators. They believe that the attempt was made by a suicide bomber, who had probably at least one accomplice. According to them, between 12 and 15 kilos of the high-grade RDX explosive were used in the explosion. The RDX is generally available only from the security forces and is rather expensive. This, if confirmed, would indicate the presence of accomplices in the security forces. This would also indicate that this could not have been a lone-wolf operation by an angry individual not belonging to any organisation. Only an organisation, with contacts and financial resources, would have been able to get such a large quantity of the explosive.

2. The Police are not yet certain how exactly the attempt was made. There are various versions based on conflicting eye-witness accounts:

VERSION No.1: There was only one suicide bomber. He managed to go past the outer security cordon without being checked, but when the inner cordon people tried to stop him and question him, he blew himself up at a distance from Benazir's vehicle. The outer cordon consisted of Sindh police officers and plain-clothes' officers of the Intelligence Bureau. The inner cordon consisted of private security guards hired by her party.
VERSION No:2: There was only one suicide bomber. He threw a hand-grenade at the outer cordon and took advantage of the resulting confusion and panic to reach the inner cordon.
VERSION No.3: There were actually two perpetrators. One, who was sitting inside a vehicle, caused an explosion with a low-intensity device. The suicide bomber took advantage of the confusion and panic. If this version is correct, it is not clear what happened to the perpetrator in the vehicle.

3. The suicide bomber version, which rules out a car-bomb explosion, does not satisfactorily explain whether one bomber can carry about 15 kilos of explosives concealed in his body without attracting suspicion. Even if he had succeeded, can a suicide bomber on foot cause such a large number of fatalities?

4. Two things stand out: First, more than 50 per cent of the fatalities were of security personnel---governmental as well as private. Seventy of the 139 persons killed on the spot were security personnel. Second, more than 50 per centof the security personnel killed were the private security guards hired by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to protect Benazir--- 50 out of the total of 70. This could be explained by the fact that the blast took place in the vicinity of the inner cordon and not the outer cordon. Could this also indicate that the suicide bomber was himself one of the security guards hired by the PPP and that was why he was able to carry such a large quantity of explosives on his body without being suspected?

5.Long before Benazir returned, her supporters were worried about the effectiveness of the security that would be provided to her. They had fears on two counts. First, a suicide attack by a jihadi terrorist organisation or a jihadi individual. Second, a Benigno Aquino type organised killing by her opponents in the security establishment. Senator Benigno Aquino , husband of Maria Corazon Aquino, was assassinated at the Manila airport as he returned from political exile on August 21,1983. Some members of the security forces of the then Filippino President Ferdinand Marcos were involved.

6.Their fears regarding the second scenario centred on four individuals: Lt.Gen. (retd) Hamid Gul, former Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), who was removed from the post by Benazir during her first tenure as the Prime Minister (1988-90); Brig (retd)Ejaz Shah, the present Director-General of the IB, which was responsible for her protection; Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, the present Chief Minister of Punjab; and Mr.Ejaz-ul-Haq, the Minister for Religious Affairs in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.Pervez Elahi is the son of Zehur Elahi, a close associate of Zia-ul-Haq, who was allegedly killed when Zia-ul-Haq was alive by the Al Zulfiqar, a militant organisation headed by Murtaza Bhutto, the brother of Benazir, to avenge the arrest, trial and execution of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, their father, by Zia and his associates. Ejaz is the son of Zia, who suspected that his father was also killed by Al Zulfiqar and not by an angry Shia airman, as was widely believed. It is believed that Benazir had conveyed her fears about a likely threat from them to President Pervez Musharraf before she returned from exile.

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