Pragmatism and North Korea Policy
Monday, April 21, 2008 at 22:52 Ruediger Frank
Among the many false assumptions around North Korea is the claim that this country and its leadership are not predictable. The opposite is true; North Korea has one of the most predictable regimes on earth. Speculations about the future are an extension of the past. The bigger the knowledge base of past experiences is, the easier such an extrapolation becomes. As a byproduct of the totalitarian system, political leadership in North Korea exhibited enormous stability and continuity. In fact, since 1948 it had only two leaders, both from the same family, the same party, and operating under the same agenda. We had six decades to study that system and its behavior. Compare this to the ten very different leaders of South Korea with their shifting agendas...
It is therefore somewhat frustrating to see how North Korea does exactly what was to be expected after the new government in Seoul decided to take a tougher stance. Until 1998, there has been half a century of experience with North Korea's reactions to tough talk, to demands for reciprocity, to attempts at forcing it to move into a certain direction. ... We might now witness a return to the old dance of mutual accusations, unilateral demands and stagnation. ... Pyongyang has never bowed down to direct pressure, for pride is all they have. Kim Jong-il can deviate from his father's line only from a position of strength, and not while he is under attack...
South Korea will wake up one day and realize that it has given up all the precious leverage it once had over Pyongyang...
Ruediger Frank wrote this article for The Korea Herald where it appeared on April 1, 2008. Posted at Japan Focus on April 14, 2008.
Ruediger Frank is Professor of East Asian Economy and Society and Director of the Vienna School of Governance, Adjunct Professor at Korea University, Adjunct Professor at the University of North Korean Studies, and Affiliate Researcher at Leiden University. He can be reached at ruediger.frank@univie.ac.at.
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