At the Precipice: Is Pakistan About to Fail?

• At the Precipice: Is Pakistan About to Fail?, [pdf], Pakistan Security Research Unit // Department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, 10 December 2009

EXCERPT: "In 2008, there were more than 2100 attacks by terrorists and insurgents in Pakistan, killing more than 2200 people and injuring another 4500. This was a 746 per cent increase in the rate of violence compared to 2005. This year, Pakistan was ranked 10th on the Foreign Policy Failed States Index, ahead of Ivory Coast, Haiti, Burma and even North Korea. These grim statistics encapsulate the fact that for 62 years, the Republic of Pakistan has been unable to sustain a cycle of legitimate government, and help explain why some say Pakistan is already a failed state. It has lost control, or never exercised any, over large swathes of its territory; it fails to provide basic administrative and security protections for many of its people; and its economy is heavily dependent on foreign aid. This paper will examine how far this nuclear armed, predominantly-Muslim state actually is from the precipice – and what the consequences might be should it stumble. For its 176 million people, a major crisis is a grave concern; but it would represent a calamity not just for Pakistan. With its crucial position in South Asia, its long-running enmity with India and its porous border with Afghanistan, any threat of political failure in Pakistan represents potentially the gravest strategic threat facing the international system."

• Read the full report [pdf].