An inside look at Israeli intelligence
Thursday, October 28, 2010 at 14:31 From: http://www.haaretz.com
For intelligence analysts, evaluating information can be just as important as collecting it, which some politicians just don't understand.
By Yossi Melman
The United Nations decides to impose new, more forceful sanctions against Iran. A dramatic announcement from the Iranian leadership concerning a "major event" is expected. Tehran expels inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and bars their access to its nuclear sites. It puts its ballistic missiles on a state of alert. The Syrian army is also declaring a state of high alert, and is initiating a large-scale military exercise. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah rushes to Damascus for a surprise visit. Israel's top intelligence officials convene for an emergency meeting.
They estimate that the sequence of events indicates Iran's intention to announce that it has developed nuclear weapons. Syria and Hezbollah coordinate positions, in anticipation of a possible Israeli or American attack. All parties prepare for war.
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Former Mossad intelligence directorate head Amnon Sofrin. |
| Photo by: Nir Kafri |
This scenario, created by Brig. Gen. Amnon Sofrin, was sketched to illustrate the complexity of seeing the "intelligence picture."
Sofrin will present the scenario tomorrow at an international conference on security, defense and intelligence that will involve hundreds of participants from dozens of countries; the event is sponsored by International Security and Defence Systems Ltd., a private company headed by Leo Gleser.
Two and a half years ago, Sofrin completed his term as head of the Mossad's intelligence directorate, and today he works as a private consultant on security matters. In 2003, he was recruited by Mossad chief Meir Dagan.
Intelligence 