• From CAI

The political and social upheaval in many parts of the Middle East and North Africa that began with a young man’s personal quest for dignity after being slighted by a policewoman in a small Tunisian town in December 2010 was one of the most important stories of 2011. The consequences of this ongoing process, commonly described as the ‘Arab Spring,’ remain unclear. In Egypt and Tunisia, the ‘Spring’ has seen the collapse of decades’ old dictatorial regimes and given way to elections and new legislatures. However, in Egypt, the army remains the most important institution and it has maintained power, even in the face of continued protests. In Libya, a violent uprising brought down four decades of dictatorship, leading to the formation of a temporary Government, which faces enormous challenges in reconciling tribal relations and launching an entirely new and supposedly democratic system of Government. In Syria and Yemen, the protests and the violence continue, while the existing power structures prevail. In Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States (with the notable exception of Bahrain), the wave of revolt has, for the time being, been averted by a barricade of monetary largesse that has effectively bought out any potential protests before they even had the chance to develop.

The ‘Spring’ and the series of popular protests that have characterised it was an unexpected phenomenon. Ever since the late 1970s - as movements inspired by a revolt in Mecca during the Hajj and, of course, the Islamic revolution in Iran with their offshoots in movements such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and others in Iraq or Egypt with the radicalised Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Jihad that made their mark with the assassination of president Anwar Sadat of Egypt, it was thought that violent Islamist action would inform the opposition to the establishment in the Arab world. The rise of al-Qaida from the ashes of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and their international terror debut with the bombings against American targets in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 culminating in the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States only served to bolster fears of a violent and Islamist uprising in the Middle East. Such fears appeared to find their confirmation in Iraq and Afghanistan in the resistance to the American led military invasions and the continued threats and attacks against Western targets throughout the decade after ‘9/11’. Yet, al-Qaida has not played any role in the Arab Spring; it may even be said it has been marginalised and rendered irrelevant by this large wave of social and political protest.

What role will al-Qaida have now? Where will it seek new grounds to develop and what conditions, if any, still warrant its existence?

Al-Qaida: The political, social and cultural background

Islamic radical movements have varied in scope and origin and responded to indigenous, cultural, social, and economic mechanisms that have silenced competing voices for change in many parts of the Middle East. They have typically espoused an anti-secular ideological programme to reverse the secular or ‘Western’ development trends of the post-war period in much of the Islamic world. As the cultural and socio-economic conditions that have fueled Islamic radicalism persist, the Arab world remains very susceptible to violent unrest inspired by the Al-Qaida movement and the 11 September attacks on the United States. For decades, radical Islam has served as the most important platform of political opposition in the Islamic world and shows that the process of Islamic radicalisation has resulted from indigenous cultural and socio-economic conditions. It was long thought that radical Islam would necessarily need brutal violence as the catalyst for change and, certainly, the many suicide bombings and other attacks witnessed over the past three decades have provided credence for this. However, the nature of the al-Qaida threat has changed; the organization appears to have split or specialised in regional branches even as it appears to have changed its goals. 

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• From CAI

Iran’s nuclear programme has for a long time been at the centre of the world’s attention. Looking more closely at Iran’s position in the world, and the continuing diplomatic conflict between Iran and western nations, it is paramount to cast light on the impact Iran’s position has on the African continent. During the last few years Iran has actively sought to establish diplomatic ties with many African nations.(2) Iran has also invested in African development and aid, although the size of these contributions is dwarfed by European Union, United States and Chinese economic activities in Africa.

The reasons behind Iran’s activity on the African continent are to be found in attempts by the international community to isolate the country. As many nations try to pressure Iran into giving up its nuclear programme by denying it opportunities to import and export goods, Iran has moved to find access to African markets to which it can export oil and other goods, and from which it can import strategic resources. Apart from the economic motivations behind Iran’s involvement in Africa, the diplomatic support of African states in the United Nations (UN) has also been a strong motivation for Iran to keep African Governments close. In this CAI discussion paper Iran’s involvements in Africa, particularly in the fields of oil and uranium trade, are analysed in the wider context of economic, diplomatic and security sector consequences for both Iran and Africa.

Iranian and African oil interests

Iran has found it difficult at times to sustain a healthy economy while under sanctions by countries that oppose its nuclear programme. The loss of access to foreign markets threatens to completely isolate Iran. This is exactly why it has oriented itself towards the African developing markets, with implications for African economies. Firstly, the threat of new sanctions against Iranian oil exports(3) has forced Iran to expand on existing or initiate new oil exports to countries that are not part of those trying to isolate Iran’s economy. This is one of the main reasons why Iran attempts to diversify its oil exports to include growing economies in Africa. The diversification of export markets in itself generates an enhanced resilience against present and future economic sanctions. Furthermore, the provision of oil to African economies is also a useful lubricant to allow other forms of economic, diplomatic and security cooperation with the continent.

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Jeremy Crump, Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco Systems